Newsletter

Commentary on events shaping the market’s important directional movements

  • The Next Sector to Eat a Big Fat Bullet

    7 days ago
    We've seen this movie before, and it didn't end well. The bulls and bears are glaring at each other from opposite ends of a dusty street, their hands are hovering over their pistols, and the clock is about to strike high noon. Someone is gonna die, and if you don't want it to be the victim, you damn well better get ready to pull the trigger.

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  • What the Fed is Really Watching (and How to Trade It)

    14 days ago
    Well, it's Fed week again. And like always, we're all on tenterhooks waiting to find out whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will start raising interest rates this month, next summer, or some time in 2016. Or maybe never.

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  • Transports Correctly Warned Us, But What Are They Predicting Now?

    21 days ago
    Last month, we explored the warning that a vintage technical system -- Dow Theory -- was giving off. It may be "old school" but it confirmed our own fears about where the market might be heading. And as you've seen this week, it was right.

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  • I’ve Never Gotten More Mail on Any Topic

    28 days ago
    I don't know if I have ever gotten more email on any topic than I have about shorting "the best market ever." If you missed our alert last week, here's what I'm talking about...

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  • How Goldman Deals With a Topped-Out Market

    1 month ago
    As I write this newsletter, Janet Yellen has just told Congress that the Fed is happy for the recent incremental rises in employment, but there is no inflation per se -- what with oil so cheap, and possibly even a little deflation -- so she doesn't see the need to do much of anything different right now. No one is particularly happy about it.

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  • This Vintage Signal is Flashing Yellow

    1 month ago
    This week we'll take our usual look at the S&P 500 SPX master chart, where you'll see that the market is really running out of headroom. Then, we will explore a classic technical indicator system that's flashing a similar warning. Finally, we have a tried and true way to properly trade it — all at a fraction of the cost of broad-market index shares.

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Chart of the Day

Technical analysis of the day’s most critical stock chart

  • Stay Away From This Train Wreck

    13 hours ago
    There is a major squabble brewing at Tempur Sealy International (TPX - NYSE). Tempur Sealy's top institutional holder, H Partners, has been calling for the removal of CEO Mark A. Sarvary. (Sarvary is also board president, which must make meetings a little...

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  • Why Barron’s JPM Article Made Us Laugh

    2 days ago
    Last Friday, Barron's published a puff piece on JPMorgan Chase (JPM - NYSE) that was simultaneously absolutely spot on and comically misguided. The gist of the story was that JPM shares should rise 30% by 2016 because its price to earnings ratio is just too low. And then Barron's Andrew Bary said the part that made us laugh out loud...

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  • Is Finish Line Ready to Cross the Starting Line?

    5 days ago
    It's hard as all get-out finding hidden value in the current market, but we think we may have found something worth speculating on... Retail has been through the roof lately, but the sneaker and hoodie outfit, Finish Line (FINL - NASDAQ), has been suffering mightily since last summer.

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  • Twitter is Taking Yahoo’s Spot at the Table

    6 days ago
    One of our favorite short plays, Yahoo! (YHOO - NASDAQ), just got, well, "shortier." According to eMarketer, Twitter (TWTR - NYSE) is about to pass Yahoo! in display ad market share. Currently Facebook (FB - NASDAQ) is number one with a 25.5% share, and Google (GOOG - NASDAQ) is number two with 13%.

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  • When to Buy KRFT and Sell HOG

    7 days ago
    We have two items on our plate this morning... First up, Stifel just kickstarted coverage on Harley Davidson (HOG - NYSE) with a "Buy" rating because of "Harley's growth-driving strategies." Last October, that would have been a bold move that netted followers 30% gains. Now? Not so much.

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  • What Does Wells Fargo See in Kimberly Clark?

    8 days ago
    Wells Fargo (WFC - NYSE) upgraded Kimberly Clark (KMB - NYSE) today from "Market Perform" to "Outperform" on "favorable risk/reward compared to the broader staples group for what we see as an under-appreciated emerging markets growth engine." On one hand, we can appreciate that emerging middle classes do want things like toilet paper and the like.

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Trade of the Day

The single most important trade you’ll see today

  • How One Professional is Betting on the Apple Watch

    8 hours ago
    The world has been awaiting the fabled Apple Watch for quite some time, and on April 24 the curtain will finally be pulled up. There's been crazy speculation among tech fans about how this new product will be received, and some of this speculation has spilled over into the options markets.

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  • Speculating on the Next Buyout Candidate

    1 day ago
    We've been up and down in 2015 as the bulls and bears fight for control. One constant in the market though has been M&A activity. All this commotion has option speculators constantly on the lookout for the next huge score. Today, the bulls came hunting in the small energy company ONEOK (OKE - NYSE).

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  • Calling a Bottom in a Big, Big Way

    4 days ago
    Internet services company Jive Software (JIVE - NASDAQ) has had a rough go of it. After hitting all-time highs in 2012, it's slowly been drifting into a death spiral ever since. It traded under $5 at one point today, but one trader thinks the bottom may finally be in here -- and he's putting a lot of money where his mouth is.

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  • Time To Buy Semiconductors?

    5 days ago
    Yesterday the market saw a rout to the downside, led lower by biotechnology and semiconductors. On the open today, the carnage continued in semis, but now it seems there could be a light at the end of the tunnel. Applied Materials (AMAT - NASDAQ) has been a favorite of option bulls for some time.

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  • Follow Up: This Option Speculator Hit the Jackpot

    6 days ago
    Timing buyouts or mergers can be difficult, but it's certainly not impossible. Just over two weeks ago, we detailed a large, unusual buyer of 10,000 June 67.50 calls in Kraft Foods (KRFT - NASDAQ), noting that this stock could be next to receive Warren Buffett's "Midas Touch."

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  • One Big Biotech Bet

    7 days ago
    The bull market has continued into 2015, and one of the sectors leading the charge has been the elusive biotechs. While the S&P 500 is higher by 1.6%, the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB - NASDAQ) is up 17%.

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