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Newsletter

Commentary on events shaping the market’s important directional movements

  • Who Harvested 426% on Deere’s Surprise?

    11 hours ago
    The market is scratching at new all-time highs again, so why is everyone so nervous? "The market climbs a wall of worry" is a well-known adage, but this time something seems different. You can see it in comments from some of the top minds in the business.

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  • Sorry Jay, Housing’s Next Drop Can Conservatively Make You 238%

    7 days ago
    Earlier this month, I suggested that housing stocks were about as high as they could go because of a nascent bounce in borrowing costs... There's one sector where the cost of capital has already gone up: home mortgages. And according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), rising rates are putting pressure on home buyers.

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  • The Only Underbought Sector with 30% Upside

    14 days ago
    This has been the oddest summer in recent memory. Big guns like Stan Druckenmiller, George Soros, Jeff Gundlach, Carl Icahn, Bill Gross, and Marc Faber have all lined up to declare the bull market DOA -- and yet we keep squeaking out fresh all-time highs.

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  • The Rising Cost of Capital is Setting You Up for a 228% Win

    21 days ago
    Last week, I predicted the Fed would do nothing. I was right, but frankly, so what? It was an easy shot to call, considering that the Fed has done virtually nothing different for months now. But I told you something else that was more important: "The bulls are running out of time. Either they grab control after the Fed announces, or we retest 2,128."

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  • Make 336% Off This ETF by October

    28 days ago
    We're back in a familiar situation, wherein this column hits the morning before the Fed speaks. Still, I'm willing to take a stab at predicting what the Fed might do. There are several good reasons why a normal Fed board might raise rates, starting with a stock market that just set a fresh all-time high.

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  • This ETF Gets Slammed No Matter Which Party Wins

    1 month ago
    I really do try to stay away from politics in this newsletter since it tends to steam folks up, and angry readers don't pay attention to my actual points which are always about trading. Unfortunately, politics is going to dominate the national conversation until the November election.

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Chart of the Day

Technical analysis of the day’s most critical stock chart

  • Technically What is Lowe’s Building?

    7 hours ago
    Analysts at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch added Lowe's (LOW - NYSE) to its "US1 list of top ideas" today because of the home improvement retailer's optimistic read on housing...

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  • One of the Only Restaurants Canaccord Will Buy

    1 day ago
    Canaccord Genuity is a little skittish about the restaurant trade. They just published a report warning of potential downfalls relating to cost and pricing problems. McDonald's (MCD - NYSE), for example, was rated "Hold" at best.

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  • It’s Too Early to Buy Mattel’s Holiday Dreamhouse

    2 days ago
    School is starting up, which means stock talk now shifts to the holiday season. We know it's kind of soon (being not even Labor Day yet), but it's already begun. Barron's got the ball rolling on Friday with a glowing feature on vintage toy maker Mattel (MAT - NASDAQ)...

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  • Deere Could Triple This Morning’s Gains

    5 days ago
    Deere and Co. (DE - NYSE) missed on revenue but absolutely crushed earnings by some 65% this morning. Management raised its full-year profit forecast (by more than the cut back in May) on higher prices and lower costs.

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  • How Has Twitter Not Been Taken Over Yet?

    6 days ago
    Analysts rarely suggest selling a stock. More often, weak stocks are rated as "Under-Performing" or, if someone is in a really sour mood, cut all the way to "Hold." But analysts at Evercore just downgraded Twitter (TWTR - NYSE) from "Hold" to "Sell" due to "more risk than reward because of competitive concerns."

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  • How Low Can Barnes & Noble Go?

    7 days ago
    It only took a year for struggling bookstore chain Barnes & Noble (BKS - NYSE) to fire its CEO, Ronald Boire.

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Trade of the Day

The single most important trade you’ll see today

  • BREW Shoots the Moon, We Gain 700%

    28 minutes ago
    People ask us all the time, "Why do you follow sharp paper?" What just happened to Craft Brew Alliance (BREW - NASDAQ) offers you the unmistakable answer. A quick recap...

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  • Are We Nearing Showtime for LGF?

    1 day ago
    Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF - NYSE) has been immersed in M&A rumors for years. With a market cap of just $3.1 billion and the proven ability to produce blockbuster franchises like "The Hunger Games," it can seem surprising that the studio hasn't already been swept up.

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  • Can SBUX Melt Higher into Autumn?

    2 days ago
    It's no surprise that inactivity is characteristic for August, and it has many stocks consolidating sideways, awaiting the next major move. Starbucks (SBUX - NASDAQ) has traded inside a 2.5% range for the last thirteen consecutive sessions. But earlier today, a trader gave it a caffeinated jolt with the purchase of 7,000 SBUX November 57.5 calls.

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  • Is TLRD Dressed for Success?

    5 days ago
    Tailored Brands (TLRD - NYSE), the parent company of Men's Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank, has often been the subject of M&A rumors. So far none have stuck, and the stock has floundered. But could today's purchase of 5,000 TLRD September 15 calls signal that's about to change? Bottarelli Research Translation:

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  • Can United States Steel Reconstruct its Glory?

    6 days ago
    During today's session, a sharp trader bought 5,000 X January 25 calls. Now, you might look at a near-term chart of United States Steel (X - NYSE) and think it's crazy to be buying calls here. Shares are up 254% since bottoming in January. But doing so would not be looking at the bigger picture.

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  • What’s MDLZ Cooking Up Next?

    7 days ago
    One of the hottest sectors leading the market to new all-time highs has been food processing, punctuated on June 30 when Hershey Foods (HSY - NYSE) rejected a $107 acquisition offer from Mondelez International (MDLZ - NASDAQ). Headlines caused quite a stir in shares for both companies, but MDLZ has since cooled off.

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