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Newsletter

Commentary on events shaping the market’s important directional movements

  • Bad News: Winter is Coming for the XLI

    4 days ago
    May is coming. That doesn't sound as creepy as "winter is coming," or "all men must die," but it's close. Historically, May is when we are supposed to "sell and go away," because that's when "all bull markets must die." The general idea used to be that far too many traders were on vacation in the spring and summer to support the market.

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  • Here’s Why IBM Just Hit a Red Stop Light

    11 days ago
    This week, traders finally said no. For years now, we've been seeing the same old story over and over again. Wall Street stalwarts report weak revenue but somehow engineer an "upside surprise" on earnings, and share prices spike. There are all sorts of ways to set this up. You can cut cost by firing a bunch of workers.

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  • This Telecom is Cursed

    18 days ago
    For the past few weeks, I've repeatedly warned you to beware of this market and suggested shorting select stocks and indexes. I had all sorts of solid technical reasons for those warnings, and by and large they have panned out.

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  • This Stock Could Lose 30%

    25 days ago
    I write about the Fed a lot, but believe me when I tell you that it's not out of love or even a deep abiding interest. In fact, I really would prefer the central bank to keep its yap shut and go about its business in secret like it used to back in the last century.

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  • I’m Mad as Hell: Here’s Why

    1 month ago
    I'm mad as hell, and I am not going to take it anymore. Okay, maybe that's a tad extreme, but I really am kind of ticked off. For weeks we have suffered through "Fed Fever," wherein investors obsessed as to whether or not the Fed would raise rates, cut rates, or just yak a lot and do nothing. We even worried about what sort of words they'd use.

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  • Forget About the Fed, We Know Exactly What This Stock is Doing

    2 months ago
    Every now and then, we get in a familiar bind. I'm writing to you just before the big two-day Fed meeting breaks and Chairperson Janet Yellen steps to the microphone to announce the central bank's latest Summary of Economic Projections. Oh, I've got a hunch or two as to what she'll say.

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Chart of the Day

Technical analysis of the day’s most critical stock chart

  • EXPE Fades the Pop on Upgraded Earnings

    1 day ago
    After the bell yesterday, online travel leader Expedia (EXPE - NASDAQ) reported better-than-expected results for Q1, with revenues increasing 39%. On the news, EXPE popped $10.00 higher but it's since started to fade. However, Morgan Stanley's Brian Nowak maintained an "Equal Weight" rating and a price target of $115.

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  • TXN Lies and Ford Flies

    2 days ago
    Earning reports are coming in hot and heavy, and seem to be breaking down into two distinct categories: factual and completely bogus. Quarterly numbers from Texas Instruments (TXN - NASDAQ) were introduced by Barron's thusly: "Texas Instruments Rises on Q1 Earnings Beat, Higher Forecast."

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  • Follow-Up: Remember Our Warning on Apple?

    3 days ago
    Back on April 11, we warned you that Apple (AAPL - NASDAQ)'s 22% rally over the previous 11 weeks had triggered a Sell Signal Stack, just as early hints were leaking that their next earnings report might be a disappointment. Specifically, we said "Another full cycle would see AAPL drop to $96.24 by late May."

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  • Chinese Censors Nix Alibaba’s Disney Deal

    4 days ago
    For weeks now, we've written about Yahoo! (YHOO - NASDAQ) and Apple (AAPL - NASDAQ). Today, we are going to feature a peculiar intersection of the two companies, but we promise to offer a completely different chart. Earlier this month, Chinese regulators shut down Apple's in-country online book and movie services.

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  • What Happens if Fiat Chrysler Disappoints?

    5 days ago
    Earnings season continues to motor along. Last week, General Motors (GM - NYSE) beat expectations handily, so now we're being asked what's coming down the pike for Ford Motors (F - NYSE) and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU - NYSE)?

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  • Norfolk Southern’s Rally is a Fraud (and Opportunity)

    8 days ago
    Earnings season continues apace, and our in box is full with inquires about stocks like Microsoft (MSFT - NASDAQ) and Alphabet (GOOGL - NASDAQ). Yeah, they are both diving on rough numbers, which we will report on next week, when we see a trading opportunity there.

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Trade of the Day

The single most important trade you’ll see today

  • Is CenturyLink About to Miss Earnings?

    1 day ago
    The market retreated for the second day in a row today as the bears continue to show some teeth. One of the largest downside trades came in telecommunication services stock CenturyLink (CTL - NYSE) when a trader bought 12,000 CTL May 30 puts for $0.80 apiece.

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  • AbbVie’s Opening Falter Gets Sharply Bought

    2 days ago
    The S&P 500 (SPX) has been stuck in a sideways pattern for a while now as it consolidates around 2,080 to 2,090, but option bulls continue to pile into calls. This morning, pharmaceutical company AbbVie (ABBV - NYSE) garnered attention after posting inline earnings and purchasing Stemcentrx for $5.8 billion in cash.

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  • AAPL’s Disappointment is the Time to Bite

    3 days ago
    Apple (AAPL - NASDAQ) released earnings after the close yesterday, and while all of Wall Street had low expectations, the numbers posted still disappointed. Shares of AAPL traded lower seven of eight days leading up to this announcement, and today marked the steepest tally as the stock tanked 6.8%.

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  • Tech’s Latest Victim Presents a Window of Opportunity

    4 days ago
    Tech stocks getting crushed on weak earnings has been the theme of the past week. Microsoft (MSFT - NASDAQ) fell victim last Thursday, losing 7.2% after posting disappointing results. This drop has sent plenty of bulls scurrying for cover, but sharp traders find a way to leverage it while the weak hands panic.

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  • Delta’s Tray Tables are in Their Upright and Locked Position

    5 days ago
    Airline stocks had been market darlings for much of the spring recovery. That was up until last week when the entire sector got smoked off some bad earnings reports and lower-than-expected PRASM (Passenger Revenue per Available Seat Mile) numbers.

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  • Possibly the Most Unusual Trade of the Year

    8 days ago
    On Monday, we told you to keep an eye on Kraton Performance Polymers (KRA - NYSE) when a trader bought 37 times the daily volume of calls traded. Since then, KRA has rallied every day and is 7.3% higher.

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