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Newsletter

Commentary on events shaping the market’s important directional movements

  • The Next Sector to Eat a Big Fat Bullet

    3 days ago
    We've seen this movie before, and it didn't end well. The bulls and bears are glaring at each other from opposite ends of a dusty street, their hands are hovering over their pistols, and the clock is about to strike high noon. Someone is gonna die, and if you don't want it to be the victim, you damn well better get ready to pull the trigger.

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  • What the Fed is Really Watching (and How to Trade It)

    10 days ago
    Well, it's Fed week again. And like always, we're all on tenterhooks waiting to find out whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will start raising interest rates this month, next summer, or some time in 2016. Or maybe never.

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  • Transports Correctly Warned Us, But What Are They Predicting Now?

    17 days ago
    Last month, we explored the warning that a vintage technical system -- Dow Theory -- was giving off. It may be "old school" but it confirmed our own fears about where the market might be heading. And as you've seen this week, it was right.

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  • I’ve Never Gotten More Mail on Any Topic

    24 days ago
    I don't know if I have ever gotten more email on any topic than I have about shorting "the best market ever." If you missed our alert last week, here's what I'm talking about...

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  • How Goldman Deals With a Topped-Out Market

    1 month ago
    As I write this newsletter, Janet Yellen has just told Congress that the Fed is happy for the recent incremental rises in employment, but there is no inflation per se -- what with oil so cheap, and possibly even a little deflation -- so she doesn't see the need to do much of anything different right now. No one is particularly happy about it.

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  • This Vintage Signal is Flashing Yellow

    1 month ago
    This week we'll take our usual look at the S&P 500 SPX master chart, where you'll see that the market is really running out of headroom. Then, we will explore a classic technical indicator system that's flashing a similar warning. Finally, we have a tried and true way to properly trade it — all at a fraction of the cost of broad-market index shares.

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Chart of the Day

Technical analysis of the day’s most critical stock chart

  • Is Finish Line Ready to Cross the Starting Line?

    10 hours ago
    It's hard as all get-out finding hidden value in the current market, but we think we may have found something worth speculating on... Retail has been through the roof lately, but the sneaker and hoodie outfit, Finish Line (FINL - NASDAQ), has been suffering mightily since last summer.

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  • Twitter is Taking Yahoo’s Spot at the Table

    1 day ago
    One of our favorite short plays, Yahoo! (YHOO - NASDAQ), just got, well, "shortier." According to eMarketer, Twitter (TWTR - NYSE) is about to pass Yahoo! in display ad market share. Currently Facebook (FB - NASDAQ) is number one with a 25.5% share, and Google (GOOG - NASDAQ) is number two with 13%.

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  • When to Buy KRFT and Sell HOG

    2 days ago
    We have two items on our plate this morning... First up, Stifel just kickstarted coverage on Harley Davidson (HOG - NYSE) with a "Buy" rating because of "Harley's growth-driving strategies." Last October, that would have been a bold move that netted followers 30% gains. Now? Not so much.

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  • What Does Wells Fargo See in Kimberly Clark?

    3 days ago
    Wells Fargo (WFC - NYSE) upgraded Kimberly Clark (KMB - NYSE) today from "Market Perform" to "Outperform" on "favorable risk/reward compared to the broader staples group for what we see as an under-appreciated emerging markets growth engine." On one hand, we can appreciate that emerging middle classes do want things like toilet paper and the like.

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  • Gilead’s Hep C Stars Lost a Little Shine

    4 days ago
    Gilead Science (GILD - NASDAQ) has been flying high primarily on the strength of its Hepatitis C drugs, Sovaldi and Harvoni. But now we've learned of potential complications if these drugs are taken in combination with certain heart treatments. We don't know yet how many clients this might impact, or if there will be a mess of lawsuits or such.

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  • Congratulations to FB Speculators — Now Sell Before It’s Too Late!

    7 days ago
    This morning, you might have noticed that the NASDAQ 100 ($COMPQ) just went nuts. And by nuts, we mean gapped and ran past its previous 2015 high set in early March by some 28 points. None of the other indexes are sharing this love. The Dow Jones Industrial Index ($INDU) is up today, but nowhere near its highs.

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Trade of the Day

The single most important trade you’ll see today

  • Calling a Bottom in a Big, Big Way

    4 hours ago
    Internet services company Jive Software (JIVE - NASDAQ) has had a rough go of it. After hitting all-time highs in 2012, it's slowly been drifting into a death spiral ever since. It traded under $5 at one point today, but one trader thinks the bottom may finally be in here -- and he's putting a lot of money where his mouth is.

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  • Time To Buy Semiconductors?

    1 day ago
    Yesterday the market saw a rout to the downside, led lower by biotechnology and semiconductors. On the open today, the carnage continued in semis, but now it seems there could be a light at the end of the tunnel. Applied Materials (AMAT - NASDAQ) has been a favorite of option bulls for some time.

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  • Follow Up: This Option Speculator Hit the Jackpot

    2 days ago
    Timing buyouts or mergers can be difficult, but it's certainly not impossible. Just over two weeks ago, we detailed a large, unusual buyer of 10,000 June 67.50 calls in Kraft Foods (KRFT - NASDAQ), noting that this stock could be next to receive Warren Buffett's "Midas Touch."

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  • One Big Biotech Bet

    3 days ago
    The bull market has continued into 2015, and one of the sectors leading the charge has been the elusive biotechs. While the S&P 500 is higher by 1.6%, the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB - NASDAQ) is up 17%.

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  • Speculating on a YUM Move This Week

    4 days ago
    Timing stocks targeted by activist investors is difficult, but that doesn't stop people from trying. Yum! Brands (YUM - NYSE) -- the umbrella company for fast food titans Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and KFC -- has long been rumored as a hedge fund target, and recently we've seen option traders speculating that someone could be making a move -- and soon.

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  • Betting Big on a Movie Flop

    7 days ago
    If you're a parent of a teenage daughter then you're probably already aware that the movie Insurgent, the second installment in the Divergent series, is being released this weekend.

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