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Newsletter

Commentary on events shaping the market’s important directional movements

  • Is TOL in a Housing Bubble?

    4 days ago
    In past issues, we've documented all of the various dark clouds forming on the horizon: China slowing, Japan slowing, Europe fragmenting, Brazil and Venezuela in recession, flat growth and weak earnings here at home, and a pending Fed rate increase on top of all that.

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  • Why is Wall Street Selling This Stock’s Great News?

    11 days ago
    Retail stocks have been getting punished with one ugly quarterly report after another. So you might think when a well-known mega-store finally delivered the best news all month, prices would take off, right? The answer will shock you, and tell you a lot about what's going on in the market right now.

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  • How DHI is Banking On Millennials’ Babies

    18 days ago
    I have a hunch that the cost of capital is about to go up quite a bit, and that increase is going to cost Wall Street dearly. You probably think I'm talking about the Fed. But the Fed seems to have sidelined itself until after the presidential election.

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  • Penetrate This Line and It’s a Rout

    25 days ago
    Last week, we spoke at length about the "Sell in May" curse. Is it real or a myth? My answer: It's real enough, when price is at "the top of the mountain." And indeed, when the calendar rolled over to May, the SPX rolled over with it. We'll analyze where that dip has taken the market, and then we'll look at one of my favorite boutique sectors:

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  • Bad News: Winter is Coming for the XLI

    1 month ago
    May is coming. That doesn't sound as creepy as "winter is coming," or "all men must die," but it's close. Historically, May is when we are supposed to "sell and go away," because that's when "all bull markets must die." The general idea used to be that far too many traders were on vacation in the spring and summer to support the market.

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  • Here’s Why IBM Just Hit a Red Stop Light

    1 month ago
    This week, traders finally said no. For years now, we've been seeing the same old story over and over again. Wall Street stalwarts report weak revenue but somehow engineer an "upside surprise" on earnings, and share prices spike. There are all sorts of ways to set this up. You can cut cost by firing a bunch of workers.

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Chart of the Day

Technical analysis of the day’s most critical stock chart

  • It’s Not DECK’s Fault Analysts Can’t Figure It Out

    2 days ago
    Deckers Outdoor (DECK - NYSE) got caught up in Wall Street's insane expectations game today, opening the window on an intriguing speculation. The maker of UGG boots and Teva sandals beat on revenue by 4.56% and on earnings by 83.3%. That's got to count for something, right?

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  • Can Crude Oil Beat $50?

    3 days ago
    In the wee morning hours, Brent Crude Oil ($BRENT) crested $50 a barrel trading in Asia for the first time since last November. West Texas Intermediate Crude ($WTIC) quickly followed suit when New York trading opened. It didn't hold at that lofty level, but is still hovering around $49.71.

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  • BUD Got Caught Crushing Competitors

    4 days ago
    Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD - NYSE) is up about 1.5% this morning on news that it's being investigated for predatory pricing. According to Reuters, AB InBev refunds 75% of the sales generated by its own brands if the beers account for up to 98% of a distributor's sales as part of the incentive program.

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  • Why Does Wall Street Suddenly Care About Square?

    5 days ago
    When Square (SQ - NYSE) was in the news last, the headline was "Square shares on track for worst day ever after big earnings loss." Square had just missed analysts' estimates by 55% with a 14 cent loss per share. That week SQ lost -33%, and now last week it dropped another -14%.

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  • Boeing’s Downside Trumps its Good News

    6 days ago
    It's either boom or bust for Boeing (BA - NYSE) -- and our charts are leaning towards the latter. On one side of the scale, Boeing just scored a $11.3 billion deal with VietJet on the back of President Obama's historic trip to Vietnam and lifting trade sanctions.

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  • Yahoo is a Fire Sale at 10 Cents on the Dollar

    9 days ago
    Brace yourself: We're reporting on poor, forsaken Yahoo! (YHOO - NASDAQ) again. Yes, it's sordid and depressing, but we have newsworthy reasons for it this morning... According to the Wall Street Journal, bids for Yahoo are coming in about half what the bulls have been banking on. Expectations were hovering between $4 to $8 billion.

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Trade of the Day

The single most important trade you’ll see today

  • Follow-Up: FEYE Calls Double in a Week

    1 day ago
    Last Friday we tipped you to the opportunity in cybersecurity company FireEye (FEYE - NASDAQ) when 7,000 FEYE September 15 calls were bought for $1.39 apiece. Since this order crossed the tape, FEYE has gained over 14.5%. Bottarelli Research Translation:

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  • Is NVDA Overdue for a Rewind?

    2 days ago
    Today may have felt like the slowest market day of the year, but that didn't stop heavy hitters from laying some lumber. NVIDIA (NVDA - NASDAQ) has arguably been the hottest stock of late. Since bottoming in February, shares are up 85%. But after beating earnings last month, this runaway train might be due for a reset.

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  • Can Oil Services ETF Turn Out Short-Term Spike?

    3 days ago
    The market continues to spit in the face of all the bears and just power higher. As has been the case for most of the ride off the February lows, energy stocks are outperforming. Earlier today a sharp trader came in with an aggressive upside order in the Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH - NYSE).

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  • European ETF Activity Hints We’re Headed Up

    4 days ago
    Stocks responded to yesterday's snoozer with bang as the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 1.3%. If you listen to the financial talking heads you'll hear all kind of reasons to sell this market, but eliminate the noise and you'll find sharp traders getting bullish.

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  • Does AVGO Have Surprise Power?

    5 days ago
    By just about any metric, today was perhaps the single slowest market day of 2016. With Memorial Day approaching, we could be in for more of the same all week, but that doesn't mean money can't still be made. One sharp trader is forgoing the near-term and banking on Broadcom (AVGO - NASDAQ) finding its spark over the second half of the year.

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  • FireEye Trade Treats Threats as Opportunity

    8 days ago
    In 2012, LinkedIn (LNKD - NYSE) acknowledged that hackers had breached data of 6.5 million users. And now yesterday, LinkedIn was forced to admit the compromised accounts actually exceeded 100 million. Whether sparked from this news or not, cybersecurity expert FireEye (FEYE - NASDAQ) had an uplifting week.

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