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Newsletter

Commentary on events shaping the market’s important directional movements

  • Make 336% Off This ETF by October

    2 days ago
    We're back in a familiar situation, wherein this column hits the morning before the Fed speaks. Still, I'm willing to take a stab at predicting what the Fed might do. There are several good reasons why a normal Fed board might raise rates, starting with a stock market that just set a fresh all-time high.

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  • This ETF Gets Slammed No Matter Which Party Wins

    9 days ago
    I really do try to stay away from politics in this newsletter since it tends to steam folks up, and angry readers don't pay attention to my actual points which are always about trading. Unfortunately, politics is going to dominate the national conversation until the November election.

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  • What to Buy After the Wall Falls

    16 days ago
    The "Great Wall of Resistance" fell yesterday, yet nobody really cared. For more than a year, we waited for the S&P 500 (SPX) to break out to a significant new high, and when it finally happened CNBC was more interested in "some of the best -- and strangest -- deals on Amazon's Prime Day sale." CNBC wasn't alone in its deafening silence.

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  • Why Bond Yields Just Set Record Lows and What You Should Do About It

    23 days ago
    Last week's big recovery has become the tent pole for this week's news flow. Suddenly, all the analysts and cheerleaders are spouting reasons why that pop means everything is okay now. Fundstrat Global Advisors' Tom Lee thinks investors are confused about the Brexit, but that this is really a good thing...

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  • Four Reasons Brazil is Worse than Great Britain

    30 days ago
    "Brexit!" From the way analysts and pundits are yammering on about it, you'd think it's the only thing going on right now. We're talking "end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it" here. Seriously, one outfit called the Brexit vote "worse than WWII and 9/11 put together." The problem is, the Brexit noise is obscuring another issue that might actually matter more.

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  • This Dead Analyst Says the Industrials are Dead Too

    1 month ago
    We've heard a lot from Fed Chair Janet Yellen since last week, but it all amounts to one thing: No rate increases anytime soon. First there was the Fed's post-meeting statement, which noted (with some pride) that the pace of the economy picked up but fretted that the labor market slowed a bit.

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Chart of the Day

Technical analysis of the day’s most critical stock chart

  • How Low will GM and Ford Go?

    9 hours ago
    General Motors (GM - NYSE) beat on revenue and earnings, and raised guidance. Ford Motors (F - NYSE) beat on revenue but missed on earnings because "higher incentive costs helped lead to lower-than-expected profit margins, impacting the bottom line." Both are getting punished this morning, with F losing some -9.54% and GM losing -4.3%.

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  • Hilton is Getting Punished for 106% Growth

    1 day ago
    This morning, Hilton Worldwide (HLT - NYSE) announced that its quarterly earnings were up 106% year-over-year. On this news, shares lost -3.45% -- and that's just since yesterday's close. HLT was already off -5.6% from last week's high of $24.43. The sell-off was due attributed to Hilton's earnings missing Wall Street's estimates by one red cent.

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  • Is Boeing Set to Crash Again This Summer?

    2 days ago
    Boeing (BA - NYSE) is looking to show off its chrome bells and whistles at the upcoming Farnsworth Airshow. But there are suspicious cracks forming in Boeing's basic frame that make us wonder if a crash is coming.

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  • Short This Side of the AMC-Carmike Deal

    3 days ago
    Buyout news continues to run rampant. Today we learned that AMC Entertainment (AMC - NYSE) has upped its offer for Carmike Cinemas (CKEC - NASDAQ) from $30.00 per share to $33.06.

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  • Wall Street Wants to Short Whirlpool’s Strength

    6 days ago
    Wall Street woke up on the wrong side of bed this morning, and traders are selling good and bad news with equal fervor. General Electric (GE - NYSE) beat estimates on both revenue and earnings and raised its full year forecast. Its reward?

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  • Sell GM’s Big Beat

    7 days ago
    We're getting deeper into earnings season, and today General Motors (GM - NYSE) revealed that it beat the analysts hands down. Analysts were calling for earnings of $1.48, which would have been a 14.73% improvement year-over-year. But GM delivered a whopping $1.81 per share.

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Trade of the Day

The single most important trade you’ll see today

  • Is ETSY Crafting an Uptick?

    4 hours ago
    The sudden ability of momentum stocks to break out is becoming a trend of this "new" bull market. As traders hunt around for the next underdog to strike gold, someone thinks it will be Etsy (ETSY - NASDAQ). Earlier today a customer bought 3,000 ETSY September 10 calls for $1.00 apiece. Bottarelli Research Translation: The math is simple:

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  • Follow-Up: Apple Roars Back, Options Gain 200%

    1 day ago
    Leading into earnings last night, Wall Street was down on Apple (AAPL - NASDAQ). While the broad market has spent recent weeks setting new high after new high, AAPL has been conspicuously absent from the party. But that appears to be changing because Apple crushed estimates and shot higher -- a move virtually nobody saw coming.

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  • Follow-Up: Netflix Trader Watches Gains Top 98% Overnight

    2 days ago
    Yesterday we asked if Netflix (NFLX - NASDAQ) was queuing up another rally, and it didn't take long to get our answer. NFLX gapped up 4.5% this morning following last evening's disclosure that director Jay Hoag purchased 600,000 shares. His average price came in between $85.93 and $87.60 over three consecutive days (July 21 to 25).

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  • Is NFLX Queuing Up Another Rally?

    3 days ago
    Market resiliency has been a hallmark of the recent bull run as options traders have been actively buying dips in all of the strong stocks. Netflix (NFLX - NASDAQ) was one of the absolute strongest stocks in 2015, up 134%. But to date this year, it's down 24%. After dipping on earnings last week, NFLX is attracting aggressive buying.

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  • This $4 Million Bet Says Pandora Gets Acquired

    6 days ago
    With the bull market suddenly back in full swing, M&A activity is expected to pick up as well and many traders are scrambling to guess the next big acquisition. Pandora Media (P - NYSE) has been a popular target for months, and just yesterday The Wall Street Journal reported that Pandora rebuffed a $15-per-share offer from Liberty Media Group.

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  • Follow-Up: General Motors Lights Up Earnings

    7 days ago
    On Tuesday, we tipped you to a strong hint General Motors (GM - NYSE) was going to beat earnings. And sure enough, this morning GM reported impressive numbers across the board, beating on earnings per share, revenues, and raising full-year guidance for 2016.

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