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Newsletter

Commentary on events shaping the market’s important directional movements

  • This ETF Can’t Hide Behind the Fed’s Blather

    5 days ago
    The biggest item on traders' minds is, of course, the two-day FOMC meeting going on right now. Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave us another of her "I see strength, sort of, and will probably raise rates some time in the next six months, unless I don't" statements.

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  • Connect the Dots: China to Oil to…?

    12 days ago
    It's time to play "connect the dots" and find the hidden treasure. Yeah, I know, it sounds kind of like a children's game. But I really am serious, so work with me here because what we're looking for is a concealed trading opportunity... Our first dot is China.

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  • Forget Greece, China, and Iran — Our Real Troubles are Homegrown

    19 days ago
    This week is turning out to be much, much calmer than last week. Greece and China are settling down, and no major businesses or exchanges suffered mysterious computer outages. This has allowed the market to settle back into its normal dull summer groove.

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  • You’re Watching the Wrong Crisis

    26 days ago
    The big vote came and went, and the Greeks rejected a proposal that wasn't even on the table anymore. The head of Greece's conservative party swore he would quit if the vote was no, and the finance minister swore he would quit if it was yes. In the end, they both quit, and now no one really knows what comes next.

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  • A Chart Only Shown to Master Technicians

    1 month ago
    Over the past few days, I've read countless headlines about the Greece's "shocking, surprise sell-off" and frankly, it's driving me a little nuts. Surprise? Really? Just last week, I pointed out that the folks who have been telling you everything is hunky dory, were actually selling off stocks ahead of this "unpredictable black swan event."

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  • Talking “Bull” While Secretly Selling

    1 month ago
    There's always been two sides to Wall Street: What is said on the record in the front office, and what is done in the back room when nobody is supposedly watching. Today, I'll show you what the cheerleaders are saying and what the big players are actually doing. The difference just might shock you.

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Chart of the Day

Technical analysis of the day’s most critical stock chart

  • Microsoft Just Gave Away Windows 10 to 14 Million Users for Free

    3 days ago
    We've made a fairly big deal about buying Apple (AAPL - NASDAQ) on pullbacks, calling it "the gift that just keeps giving." So much so that one reader wrote in calling us a "one trick pony." Not so! We also firmly believe you should sell Microsoft (MSFT - NASDAQ) on most rallies.

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  • Three Reasons to Buy Ford Now

    4 days ago
    Today, we have three good reasons to buy Ford Motor (F - NYSE) right now. First up, according to IHS Automotive, the average vehicle on U.S. roads is a record-breaking 11.5 years old. This implies a certain amount of frugality amongst American consumers. But it also means there's a substantial potential replacement cycle looking forward.

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  • Buffalo Wild Wings is Begging for This

    5 days ago
    We smell a rat at Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD - NASDAQ). Not at our local restaurant, mind you. It's clean and reasonably well-run for a wing joint. But the behavior of the stock today looks very suspicious to our eyes. This morning, BWLD spiked some 12% on its latest quarterly numbers.

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  • Nike Pays the Price for Missing the Count

    6 days ago
    We've written quite a bit lately how Apple (AAPL - NASDAQ)'s sell-off was insane. In particular, the rumor that sales of Apple Watch had rolled over and died after the product's initial launch has amused us to no end. According to CEO Tim Cook, that's just not true.

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  • What Does Morgan Stanley Really See in Qualcomm?

    7 days ago
    Today, Morgan Stanley (MS - NYSE) drew a line under Qualcomm (QCOM - NASDAQ) with an upgrade to Overweight because "the market has become too pessimistic and that Qualcomm's recent cost cutting moves and new product releases are sources of momentum for the company and the stock." We see two reasons Morgan Stanley is stepping up this week.

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  • Wall Street Got Housing Absolutely Backwards

    10 days ago
    Oops! Earlier this week, homebuilder stocks popped on news that existing home sales were very near their eight-year high. Turns out there were two problems with that theorem. First off, builders don't make a nickel off used house sales. And second, today we learned from the Commerce Department that in June, new U.S.

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Trade of the Day

The single most important trade you’ll see today

  • CCE Follow-Up: $4.6 Million in Profits (and Counting)

    2 days ago
    Earlier this year, we featured one of the biggest trades you'll see... Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE - NYSE) is a European distributor of Coca-Cola (KO - NYSE) products, and since this trade in late April, CCE has been biding its time, mostly going sideways -- until last night.

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  • Will SunEdison Pop 4% Tomorrow?

    3 days ago
    It wasn't so long ago that if you wanted to trade a stock option, you only had one expiration cycle from which to choose. You traded options expiring on the third Friday of the month, or you didn't trade options. Nowadays, many stocks have options expiring every week.

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  • Cerner’s Pentagon Contract Made This Insider 257%

    4 days ago
    Unusual option activity is such an effective tool in trading, as it often alerts you when a stock is about to make a substantial move. Sometimes that big move can take a while to develop, and sometimes it never comes at all. But every so often, sharp options traders make a killing in a very short amount of time.

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  • Post-Earnings, Going Long on Ingersoll-Rand

    5 days ago
    We're in the heart of earnings season now, and seeing lots of stocks making large, outsized moves. Some option traders love to speculate beforehand on where a stock is headed, but many sharp investors prefer to take a longer-term approach and place their bets after earnings are released.

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  • This Bud’s For You

    6 days ago
    With the S&P 500 (SPX) down five days in a row, many investors are running for cover. Sharp traders, however, are shopping for bargains. Anheuser Busch Inbev (BUD - NYSE) reports second quarter earnings before the open on Wednesday. The stock is down 4.7% in just the last week, and now suddenly the bar to beat earnings is getting lower.

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  • Visa Follow-Up: 1,035% Gain

    9 days ago
    We often get emails asking if these "Sharp Paper" trades actually make money. Of course, not every trade is a winner. But there are more winners than losers, and occasionally some of the winners make very large profits. For example on July 8, we watched a trader buy 10,000 V August 72.5 calls for $0.40 each, expecting a big move in Visa (V - NYSE).

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