Your Holiday-Shortened Update

Can You Believe LVS!?

By Bryan Bottarelli
Monday, July 03, 2006 11:39 AM EST
Mon, 3 Jul 2006 16:39:00 GMT

Dear Bottarelli Research Member,

Although the market is only open for a half-day in front of tomorrow’s 4th of July holiday, I couldn’t stop myself from sending you a holiday-shortened update alert today.

To be honest, most of the euphoria comes thanks to Las Vegas Sands (LVS — NYSE). I can’t tell you excited I was checking the LVS stock price from airport lobbies and hotel business centers. Every time I checked, the stock was moving higher and higher. This was exactly the upward price movement I had expected when I recommended the LVS July 70 Calls (LVS GN) on June 15th and then doubled down on the position again on June 22nd. Just look at this jaw-droopingly beautiful stock chart:

LVS

When it comes to timing our exit price, I admit that I sold the position one day too soon — taking our gains on Thursday when the stock continued to run on Friday as well. But to be honest, I cannot apologize for taking profits off the table. The July 70 Calls (LVS GN) were trading as low as $1.70 during our holding period — and got up to $8.70 when I checked at one point on Friday. Your overall profit should fall somewhere in between these two low-water and high-water trigger points.

Overall, I’d have to rate this one as a tremendously successful winner. Congrats on hanging in there with me on this one — and I hope to have many more like this one coming in the near future. In fact, I’d like to hear about how you did on this LVS trade. If you have a moment, please e-mail me at bryan@bottarelliresearch.com and tell me how LVS worked out for you!

Looking at our other positions, I’d have to say that every one of them is looking good. Pepsico (PEP – NYSE) is rallying nicely; pushing your PEP October 60 Calls (PEP JL) up to $2.70. That’s a slight gain off our $2.45 entry price. If these calls move up to $3.00, I’d look to take our conservative 22% gain off the table.

PEP

FedEx Corporation (FDX) is moving up as well, which has sparked life into your FDX July 120 Calls (FDXGD). If you recall, we bought these calls alongside the FDX July 100 Puts (FDXST) for a total basket price of $1.32. As of today, the July 120 Calls are trading between $1.15 and $1.30 per contract. I set a “busy man” sell on these calls at or above $1.00 last week — and they traded as high as $1.25. I’d like to reiterate this sell price on the FDX July 120 Calls while holding our July 100 puts. Selling today could get you $1.25 per contract. When all is said and done, I think we could squeeze a slight profit out of this position after all.

FDX

I also like what I see when I look at our two downside positions. The AVID August 35 Puts (AQI TG) that we entered on 6/22 for $2.90 are currently $2.55 to $2.70. Although they’re slightly down from our entry price, it’s important to note that AVID did not particulate in the big rally we saw last Thursday. This lack of bullish enthusiasm makes me comfortable holding August puts. Along the same lines, MDT continues to experience weakness without any bullish support. The MDT August 50 Puts (MDT TJ) that some of you were able to enter on 6/27 for $3.10 currently trade between $3.40 and $3.50. Hold both your AVID and MDT put positions.

AVID

When I look at our longer-term “Aftermath Report” plays, each and every stock is making a strong comeback. Most notably, my favorite biotech stock Genentech (DNA – NYSE) has really started to shoot higher. Check out this powerful chart:

DNA

We’re holding the DNA November 80 Calls (DWN LP) for an average entry price of $6.75. Current bid/ask on the November 80 calls is $8.70 to $9.00. Executing a $9.00 sale would net a 33% gainer, so I’d conservatively set a sell at $9.00 good until cancelled.

Also making a strong upside move is Caterpillar (CAT – NYSE). As you can see by the chart, CAT made a nice move past its 50-day moving average, which could have switched over from resistance to support.

CAT

We’re holding the CAT November 75 Calls (CAT KO) for an average entry price of $4.65. Current bid/ask on the November 75 calls is $5.00 to $5.20. Hold for more gains.

Despite the big time price fluctuations in gold, I’m still bullish on Barrick Gold (ABX – NYSE).As you know, inflationary environments mean that metals represent a safe-haven investment. With the dust finally settling in metals volatility, ABX is now showing signs of bottoming out. I’d think the stock gets some very serious attention if it crosses the $30.00 level.

ABX

We’re holding the ABX October 30 Calls (ABX JF) for an average entry price of $2.70. Current bid/ask is $2.50 to $2.60. Hold.

Finally, we have our mid-cap defense stock play in Alliant Techsystems (ATK – NYSE). As you can see from the chart, the stock is tightly hugging the 200-day moving average. If ATK makes a run at the 50-day moving average, which I think it could, then I’d think $80.00 is an achievable price target.

ATK

We’re holding the ATK November 80 Calls (ATK KP) for an average price of $4.65. Current bid/ask on the November 80 calls is $3.30 to $3.70. Hold.

And with that, I’d like to sign off. But first, I’d like to wish you and your family a happy Independence Day. Have fun, be safe, and we’ll get back to trading on Wednesday.

Don’t forget to email me your stories about LVS — and as always…

Lock and load!

Sincerely,

Bryan Bottarelli

Bryan Bottarelli
Editor, Bottarelli Research

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